• Goags20172
    162
    Now that the schedule is out I can guess how the Aggies will do in 2019. The team lost its top power hitters in Anderson and Hooper, but they're being replaced by some very capable players who can get on base consistently in John Mook and Cooper Morrison. I expect Caleb Van Blake will step up + lead the team in homeruns. Interestingly enough I read a Davis Enterprise article last season that described Steve Ouellette as a power- hitting first baseman. I still think Gedestad will play more there with Ouellette pitching now. If I were really selfish I'd put Myers at first and let Peng DH.

    The 2019 team has a lot of good table- setters but it will have to play good defense and excel at small ball to do better than my projections. These two areas have been bugaboos for years.

    The pitching is a reason for optimism. Blais + Loar were good but not irreplaceable. Hannah, Brown, and Sasaki (or all of them) are capable of getting similar results to Blais The schedule is pretty friendly in that it doesn't appear the Aggies will ever need to use a 5th starter. What's more, the 4th starter (whoever that winds up being) will be available for relief a little more often. The pitching staff will not be spread as thin. With my roster guess I counted 19 players who could be called upon to pitch (not counting Briggs). Obviously it won't be that many probably 14- 15 at most, but Vaughn will have the flexibility of replacing struggling pitchers earlier and more frequently. No need for 3- 4 inning stints from long relievers in games they're losing 6- 1.

    All of this is great, but how does that look in terms of W- L record ?

    N. Colorado (2- 1). The bears won 3 of 4 last year, but I got the impression the Aggies beat themselves with poor defense (such as a pick-off throw winding up in the dugout) as the bears beat them. I saw Northern Colorado later in the season against Sac State + they were not so impressive.

    Nevada (1-1)

    Arizona State (1- 2) Even with a team of youngsters and inexperienced starters the Aggies gave the Sun Devils all they could handle in 2016. The 2019 team will be deep + talented enough to steal a win.

    Sac State (1- 1) Believe it or not the hornets look to be more beatable than in previous years. I saw their fall exhibition against Santa Clara + the team is barely recognizable. I had a scorecard + it still wasn't much help. Their projected Fri+ Sat starters + closer are really good, but in addition to 10 players that either graduated or were drafted another 5 or 6 underclassmen were not on the 2019 fall roster, including their starting shortstop, catcher, and Sunday starter. These 15- 16 new players are primarily freshmen. As good as they may be there are going to be some growing pains. You don't replace your entire starting outfield, catcher, and three quarters of your infield + get quite the same level of stifling defense they usually show against UCD. That said they still have plenty of talent.

    Utah Valley (2- 1). The Aggies usually do pretty well against the wolverines in Davis. They looked pretty bad against Sac State in 2018.

    Santa Clara (1- 1) UCD does ok against the broncos. Don't see them winning in Santa Clara. That park is a bit of a bandbox + a slugfest will be difficult to win without Hooper or Anderson. Santa Clara lost 1B Jake Brodt (3HR, 2 of them 7th inning grand slams in a game I witnessed) and 3B John Cresto to the draft, but they still have good power, including outfielder Andre Nnebe, whom Baseball America has given some nice praise. The last Aggie to get more than a passing mention from them was Cameron Olson (in 2012).

    Pepperdine (1- 2) The team that gave UCD their first loss in the 2008 Stanford regional (after they had just beaten the Cardinal). They're very good, but in a lower half of the Pac- 12 sort of way. Aggies should be able to steal one.

    San Francisco (1- 1)

    Stanford (0- 1)

    Utah (2- 1) The Utes have talent but their pitching leaves much to be desired. It's not going to go from very poor to very good in 1 year. I was impressed with their offense when I saw them, especially third baseman Rykker Tom (sp ?) cf DaShawn Keirsey (since drafted), and second baseman Oliver Dunn. The 2018 started off with at least a dozen losses. Sac State just narrowly missed being their first victim of the season when they visited...in March. Smith's ballpark is also very hitter- friendly.

    For the Big West games I'll just do it in summary fashion. I gave the Aggies 1 win against 5 of the teams, none against Fullerton or LBSU (The dirtbags don't stay down for long) and 2 against UCR because they usually play the highlanders well in Davis. This gives us a final tally of 20 wins and 30 losses (7- 17 in the Big West). Looks like a very small improvement, but it's more likely to show in the quality of the games they lose.
  • SoCalDavisFan
    6
    Thank you GoAgs for the excellent synopsis. I think 20 wins is a solid and realistic goal, and a move in right direction. This team has a very young core, which bodes well for years to come. I would venture to say that +5 wins in the 2020 season is also very realistic. Going from 18 wins to 25 wins within two years is the momentum the Ags need to continue to compete in the BW.
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