• Goags20172
    162
    Siouxfan brought up the topic in passing on the football board, but I thought it deserved its own topic in the baseball forum. He or she opined that the Aggies would finish first in the WAC. While I like the enthusiasm I don't think it's realistic, that the conference is stronger than they think.

    As someone who sees several Sac State games a year I would say that UCD would finish 2- 3 spots higher than they do in the Big West most years and be a middle- of the- pack team (barring some quicker than expected improvement). New Mexico State (the 2018 WAC champion) is strong, but they aren't the only challenger:

    Sac State- they've won the conference tournament twice since 2014 and they've had seven consecutive winning seasons. They're replacing most of their starting position players this year but they still have pretty strong pitching + defense. Also, UCD hasn't beaten the hornets since 2017 + it took a walk- off balk to get that win. Likely will still finish no lower than 4th.

    Grand Canyon- probably the top challenger to NMSU.

    Seattle: Every year they seem to recruit some really good pitchers, even a few with mid- high 90's heaters. Kind of baffling how they manage to do it. I've been to Seattle U- they don't even have their own baseball field, the campus kind of has a commuter college feel, albeit with much nicer buildings + landscaping. They use a community park in Bellevue- that's similar to the SF Academy of Art playing its games in Petaluma. Throw in the cost of a private school education + the fact the team had 25 consecutive losing seasons prior to 2014 (when they beat the Aggies 3 out of 4) and it's a real head- scratcher as to how they get these players. Very nice campus though Tough team to beat when their pitching is healthy.

    I'm leaving Bakersfield out since they're joining the Big West soon

    Northern Colorado often finishes with a sub .500 record but they won 3 of 4 from UCD last year.

    UTRGV- kind of the underachiever of the TX schools, but they surprise now and then. In 2014 they had that pitcher Sam Street who started the season 10- 0. Just like all TX teams they're tougher to beat in the Lone Star state.

    Utah Valley and Chicago State have been bottom- feeders of late + I don't really know how well Cal Baptist will adjust to D1 just yet.

    Honestly I wouldn't say UCD would even be the runaway favorite to win the CCAA conference if they moved down to D 2 (keeping all current players)- they would be one of the favorites though. I don't mean to say that the team isn't good, just that it would be quite presumptious to think they'd just steamroll over the conference fors, like Chico State used to do in the 90's. The Aggies used to beat some D1 teams when they were D2. With 4 game weekeend series that conference is ripe for upsets.

    Think the point is moot though. The university would likely have a fit about having to send 25+ student athletes on flights out of state at least 3 times a year + that's not including non- conference games. I think if UCD ever becomes a full member of the WAC they'll just cut the sport altogether
  • SoCalDavisFan
    6
    I personally feel that the Aggies would be substantially more competitive in the WAC. The So Cal programs are stronger because of their recruiting base. The WAC schools have no foothold in So Cal, which would even the playing field. I would guess perennially upper half of WAC, with a WAC championship in the last 5 years.

    Overly optimistic? Perhaps, but I would argue this all day.
  • FullertonBaseballFan
    10
    Interesting question. UC Davis would be more competitive in the WAC. They wouldn't have Fullerton, Long Beach, Irvine, Cal Poly and UCSB to deal with. Three of those teams have been to Omaha in the last five years and the other two have hosted regionals and/or super regionals during that time.

    NMSU, Grand Canyon and Sac State are the only WAC teams that would be competitive most of the time on annual basis in the Big West.

    The bottom teams in the WAC (Bakersfield for now, Seattle, UTRGV, Utah Valley, Northern Colorado, Chicago State) are worse than the bottom 2-3 teams in the Big West in a given year, some much worse on an annual basis. One of those teams will occasionally poke its head up before sinking back down (usually either Bake or Seattle).
  • Goags20172
    162
    I looked at both Sac State and UCD's stats from 2018 to see what factors (aside from competition strength)the 17 win differential could be based on. It was pretty interesting.

    UCD had only 1 fewer hit than the hornets but out- batted them .278 to .259 (CSUS played more games)

    Sac State hit twice as many homeruns and stole almost 30 more bases.

    One thing I did not expect to find was that their fielding percentages were very similar (less than 1% difference), meaning UCD was better than what I witnessed when I saw them play the first 2 of the 4 games I saw in 2018, and that what they did against UCSB and UCI was closer to the norm, fielding wise.

    Sac State caught more than 1/3 of runners trying to steal, while UCD caught a little more than 20% (11 caught stealing total)

    So what does this tell me ? That Sac State is more successful at manufacturing runs once they get someone on base and their pitchers and catchers are better at keeping baserunners honest. They are also smarter basestealers. Those are all things I've witnessed to be true over the years.

    The remaining stats are more subjective than those. Homeruns are also a factor of the home ballpark + the skill of the opposing pitcher. I've seen windy days at Dobbins Stadium when the ball just carries and carries, but most days someone has to really wallop the ball to get it out of the park whereas I've seen some cheap ones at John Smith Field. In one game at Santa Clara in 2018 I probably saw more cheap homeruns than I have in all the D- 1 games I've seen at Dobbins Stadium combined. D2- different story.

    UCD also doesn't have the benefit of playing teams like Chicago State, which is absolutely hapless away from home. I remember telling the Sac State student manager/staistics guy before the first game that first baseman Vinny Esposito (normally a power hitter but had 0 hr going into conf. play) was due + he was going to hit one that day. Esposito hit 2, and after the first one the stats guy walked into the stands and gave me a fist bump. Not only that, but freshman shortstop Keith Torres hit his first in the same game + the reserve catcher, who rarely even hit the ball out of the infield, just missed his first.

    Chicago State is just really bad on the road. Due to the WAC mercy rule they don't play 9 innings a lot of the time. I believe the 2018 series with SAC only lasted a total of 21 innings. When they play at home they can steal some wins from better teams. Chicago State kind of reminded of that book I read in elementary school- "Sideways Stories from Wayside School". There's one kid in the class who, due to not following the classroom rules, gets sent home early on the kindergarten bus every day. He yearns to know what happens in class after lunch, but can never make himself behave. Being on the losing end of a mercy rule game has to be the mental equivalent to a player/coach of being sent home on the kindergarten bus I'm guessing.

    Of course, the mercy rule would help UCD on those days when the pitching is just awful. Tougher to lose 16- 2.
  • AggieFinn
    418
    Better in WAC, but, we'd draw less talent...my opinion
  • BaseballAtDobbins
    42
    The benefit of playing in Socal over half the season against schools the average California baseball player knows is a good thing. They need to upgrade their facilities rather than look to downgrade to the WAC.
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