Fielding Three guys who can and do take snaps and throw passes in on the same red zone package is killer against these —well, not top FCS defenses

Curiously, despite our concerns on here about the reliance on the run game and short passes, UCD is now 16th in the nation in yards per play (slightly ahead of Sac, NDSU, and Jackson State for example).

Aggies are actually creeping up there in a lot of stats, especially offensive and penalty related stats, and you can start to see why the ratings like Massey and Sagarin think this is a top 25 team based on performance vs the schedule

Edit for more examples:
Total Offense - #11
Fewest Penalties Per Game - #3
Passing Offense - #13
Completion Percentage - #9
Rushing Offense - #28
Yards/Rush - #12
Turnover Margin - #3

Position in bracket is irrelevant if you're not in the top 8, as I understand it. Having a cushion against other bubble teams is the "only" benefit to having more wins if you're not a 1 or 2-loss team already. (A huge benefit though).

Agree it's a virtual lock that somebody else (likely MSU) gets the auto-bid.

That's what I was just thinking. Sac State losing here makes a conference title marginally more doable but that's out of our control anyway. Sac winning here puts us in a better playoff situation.

Although, I'm guessing we're a lock at 7-4 if Sac is halfway decent by the time we play them.There would have to be serious time zone bias by the committee to not pick a 7-win team with our schedule.

Defense was on the field a lot because the O was scoring so fast; I'm wondering if there's a "sweet spot" where a slightly better opponent might have somewhat fewer (or at least not proportionally more) rushing yards vs a fresher Aggie D and/or against the starters for longer in the game.

Nope. 75-yard TD for LL on first play

They finally get a TD, presumably on our backups.

Time to see Dixon on our next drive maybe? (Or get Tompkins some reps)

Our rushing corps is having a party out there

I just do not understand decisions like that. It barely moves the needle in terms of chance of victory and it isn't even guaranteed 3, as we just saw.

Huh, an I formation in a post-Gould Era Big Sky game, now I've seen everything

Hastings is trending to his usual statline where he doesn't look explosive but has a tremendous completion percentage and no picks.

Good enough to win handily when the defense is generating turnovers to give good field position

Who needs offense?

Tompkins is suited up today, I noticed. Not sure how many snaps he'll get but I was mildly surprised to not see him once they were within the 5.

Massey gives us an 81% win probability, and that might be a little low since I doubt it knows how to account for little things like missed PATs and FGs being such difference makers in prior games (i.e. we're disproportionately likely to lose a close game, thereby affecting the inputs to rankings, but that doesn't speak to a particular risk of not being able to hold on to a lead against an opponent we're supposed to beat).

Anyway, overall game thoughts is remarkably zero complaints. the 1s cruised even with Tompkins out.

I know we can debate whether or now we should run any trick plays in a game where the outcome was decided the 1st quarter, but that particular trick play was super interesting because it was Hastings running something approximating the unbalanced 2-pt package that Tompkins usually runs. That lateral to LL is something Tompkins has the arm to easily do -- and of course we know he's a perfectly fine receiving threat too -- so I think the goal of that play was to force future opponents to prepare for yet another wrinkle in that package. Larison also looked at one point like has going to cut inside and run it.

Oh and speaking of extra points, it looks great that Gomez is dialed in. 8/8 on PATs if I counted right.

I think there might be a bit of a perception problem that the security team would need to address if their main job is seen as checking tickets and making people pour out beverages at the gates, and not actually breaking up rowdiness

9100 tickets distributed sounds about right. There were a lot of people in concession lines, hanging out in the scoreboard shade, etc. There actually was very limited availability when buying tickets for some friends Sat midday, even in sections where it looked 1/3 empty in the stands.

Also I'm wondering if a lot of students ordered "just in case" tickets to kinda just swoop in and out of the game / maybe some bailed due to the heat at kickoff. I did see some students looked like they were dressed for the game walking AWAY at the beginning, and a friend at UCD told me they actually missed the game because it was the first one with the non-7PM start

I assumed there was a technical glitch going on because the ticker on the Cincinnati/Tulsa game straight up said that the UCD game was streaming, when it in fact did not seem to be.

Totally agree that we were getting the short end of the stick because we're a smaller profile school and fanbase. But that's also frustrating and a bit circular, because what was at stake here was literally this team's main opportunity to get a national TV audience and therefore build its profile. By the time our game was on ANY platform, it was 10:40 East Coast time and basically just a regionally broadcast game at that point.

I agree we didn't have a shot at Chambers and he brings a lot to the table. I guess I'm venting that I want us to get to the point where we do have the ability to go 2-deep with this level of athlete at key positions. If that's actually impossible because of recruiting limitations, then we're in deep trouble if we're hoping to build anything more than consistent 7 or 8-win seasons (even that looks like it won't be consistent).

It’s harrowing that MSUs backup QB is considerably more productive than our second year (ish) starter