Well, I guess it comes down to resume. The Ags lost at no. 5, beat an FBS team, and have a respectable loss to a Power 5 FBS team, a win over a then-ranked Idaho state, a road victory over a possibly-ranked Montana, etc.

Team A - loss at P5 FBS Stanford, win over G5 FBS SJSU, loss at #5 Team C
Team B - loss at P5 FBS Utah, loss at 3-6 conference foe
Team C - loss at P5 FBS Wazzou, loss at #3 Team B

All at 8-2...who ya got?

The A.G.S. consensus seems to be the playoff field, as a whole, is relatively weak. Not a lot of 9-2 or 10-1 teams. Big Sky very strong

That would be a tremendous draw. I don’t want the 8 seed. JMU vs NDSU that quickly. Hmmm. Would be surprised if the committee did that - if they beat Towson expect the committee to be nice to JMU (vs what they would do w/ other teams in same situation). I’ll be shocked if they set that up to be a 8v1 between those two. Idaho st can help the Ags out a lot by beating Weber.

I'm predicting Idaho State circles the wagons and beats Weber

Re: Bracketology Week 11

Nobowls http://www.nobowls.com/ :

I think ISU will give Weber all it can handle. And while I don’t think the Vikings can win it, that’s a tricky little Friday night game for EWU vs. PSU team playing much better right now.

After some time to dig in a little I feel much better about a UCD seed. Looking at all the teams in play, no other teams that can really play themselves into a seed (or have a resume that would pass UCD).

Jax St/Kenny is a seed play in game. Kenny resume would be weak if they lose and should drop below UCD. I expect them to beat Jax however and get the 2 or 3 seed.

All other teams in play have losses (at least 2 FCS losses). Only teams can hurt themselves, Kenny/Weber specifically. Some good wins out the end to be had but all by teams w 2 FCs Losses
Who should be below UCD.

Also, an ISU or Montana win help the Ags resume. Montana vs MSU is a play in game imo.

UCD greatly helped this year by the CAA MVFC and Southland all bearing each other up. CAA likely to get 5 maybe 6 but all w 3 or more losses. Southland is cray.

Same if Aggies have last game canceled?

In looking at the AQI map yesterday, and it looks like the really unhealthy air doesn’t get past the Causeway, go figure.

So does playoff action start 11/24? If so, then our first game would be 12/1?

1st round is 11/24. i'm hoping that CK is right in that we'd get a seed (bye) if we take care of business Saturday, and then would open at home on 12/1.

Hopefully that would be the schedule. A lot of students will be gone for Thanksgiving weekend.

Yup, I'm now on team "UCD will get a seed" based on the landscape of FCS which means first game would be at home on the weekend of 12/1. Sadly, I'm in NYC so will miss but happy to be heading up for the Causeway this weekend.

If I get a second later will type up the tiebreaker in the So-Con - its pretty wild.

Here’s a 140-character explanation from STATS:

Ha! Thanks! Its nuts right? And i think both of those teams will win this weekend putting this scenario into play.

FWIW, the hero sports group all dropped UCD out of a seed. They had them as the next two below the top 8 seeds. Some of the main reasoning is they cant see the committee putting 3 teams from one conference in. For me, it comes down to resumes - and UCD has a better resume than a couple of the teams above it. I would hope the conversation doesn't boil down to something as dumb as 3 teams from one conference and is focused on resumes. If so, Ags are a seed. You go 9-2 (tie for conference champ) with wins over Montana, Idaho St, USD (playoff team), and an FBS you 100% deserve a seed/bye. Now I might be saying something different if there we a number of other teams with either 2 losses or only 1 FCS loss but this year is different and their isnt. The FCS has been wild this year (plus Big sky plays an unbalanced schedule) and has created this unique position. I hope the committee rewards appropriately

Let me try to simplify - here are the team UCD should root for this weekend (in order of importance, IMO). Note - im only mentioning games where i think loss is a potential. For example, South Dakota not beating SDSU. Portland St not beating EWU (but i think they keep it closer than expected - they will be about 24 points underdogs)
1. Idaho St (this win would be the single biggest thing for the Ags and almost guarantee a seed. A second FCS loss for Weber would drop them below UCD and almost assure the Ags a spot. ISU would stack another quality win and potential playoff spot.
2. Elon (Maine has a strong resume even with more FCS losses. If Elon could beat them would help move someone fighting head to head with Ags for seed. Elon will be a 7-10 point underdog.). Elon would have a seeding case but the best option is for Maine to take an L.
3. Kennesaw St - If Jax St get this huge win they would have an argument to be moved into the seeding conversation. Kenny wins keeps it clean they get a top 4 seed.
4. Montana - strengthens UCD resume, likely puts another team that the Ags beat into playoffs.
5. Villanova - beating Delaware would take them out of seeding conversation. Outside looking in but less teams to compete with for seeds.

Note: Towson JMU is a huge game in the CAA. The winner will be 8-3 with a strong resume and 2 FCS losses. Winner would have a case for a seed and prob gets one. Towson has the stronger resume now with two close losses vs GOOD teams. JMU UNH loss is a bad one. (even though UNH better now and heahlty)

do you think they would seed Colgate? That’s a pretty weak resume unless they pull off a big upset over Army

Great question and I have no clue how they will handle it. My guess - they are in as a 7/8 seed. Their schedule is REAL light but man its crazy how dominant they've been. 5 shutouts. 12 points allowed in last 8 games is crazy no matter the competition. Insane.

They had two good measuring stick games: UNH and Furman. UNH was awful to start the year (Knight got hurt and they were a mess so not the team we expected) and Furman got cancelled due to weather. The Furman game would have been huge to see where these guys stack.

My guess though (unless they lose by 40+ vs Army - they wont) is they sneak in as a low seed. But I could easily argue the other side just trying to speculate what I think the committee will do...

I am assuming that round 1 is Saturday if Thanksgiving weekend so round 2 December 1 so would be in Davis although it is “first take care of business” at Sac State in my mind. Round 3 would be back East? but am out of pocket that day with daughter’s graduation from PA school in Dec. 8

depends on which Idaho State team shows up. Their defense has been inconsistent. It will help that the game is in Pocatello (area code 208 - note coaches’ attire) and is certainly winnable.

Well, let's see how it shakes out!

They are calling this year's matchup of Montana and Montana State the Brawl of the Mild.

For the Record, and sorry if it was already posted, but Sunday, 11/18, 9:30 am PT on ESPNU they will reveal the FCS playoff seeds and qualifying teams.

Link

First Round - Nov. 24
Second Round - Dec. 1
Quarterfinals - Dec. 7 or 8
Semifinals - Dec. 14 or 15
National Championship - Jan. 5, 11 a.m. CT (ESPN2) in Frisco, Texas

Great article by Dunning.

https://www.davisenterprise.com/sports/ucd-football-takes-a-dip-in-polls/

“Despite a poll dip, UCD playing for playoff position”

Dunning skipped the fire issue.

Who cares.
I'm still pinching myself because we aren't 2-9, 5-7, or 6-5 again.

I never even got to see a 6-5 season...

It was frustrating to go 6-5 or 5-6 what seemed like every season after 2003.

It did not compare to the pain we all endured during Gould's tenure, however.

Ugh.

The teddy bears vs. the mild cats?