Plough's name coming up as a possibility for Oregon State I agree with you that Oregon State wouldn't be a good fit for Plough, and I'm thinking OSU probably realizes he wouldn't be a good fit for them at this point. You're absolutely correct that Oregon State is a really tough place to win, especially right now.
To get back to any type of relevancy, first in Oregon, then at the Group of 6 level, and (hopefully) eventually beyond, OSU needs someone who has more than a good coaching resume. They need someone whose name and/or background brings instant credibility to Corvallis. Someone whose hire might also raise the stature of the new Pac 12 as a whole. Not sure they can get that kind of person, but a rising star with a successful 1 1/2 year HC stint isn't going to be that guy.
I think Plough is smart enough to know that he would be the type of hire OSU settled for, rather than being the guy they really wanted. He wouldn't even have the built in connection that Bray had. Given the condition the Oregon State football program...and maybe the whole athletic program, his situation would likely be exactly as you described, "3-4 years of aggravation before you're fired." Career killer.
My nomination as the guy that should top their list, would be Mike Gundy. In addition to the "name/credibility" quality, he shown he can rebuilt a program in a P%/4 conference, that when he arrived, was probably much like Corvallis is today. The caveat would be, could Gundy better adapt to the NIL era than he did at the other OK State?