This series goes back fifty years exactly and Davis won that first game 50 to 21, so it.would.be fitting if they scored 50 again.

Portland State's offense is not too bad. They have a very large offensive line, everyone at the top of their depth chart over 320lbs. They have a running back who gained 100 yards against Chattanooga. Against Chattanooga they were able to score 30 points despite their opponent having the ball for 35 minutes.
And Davis hasn't shown an interest in winning big.
I think Davis wins handily but by a score that looks closer than the game, as they did in their last five wins, going back to the Causeway.

Purely from the point of view of point differential, Sagarin has Davis as the fifth best Big Sky team, and will play three higher rated teams, Montana State, Montana, and Sac. Davis doesn’t have to play two Big Sky teams that are in their top 20, Weber and Northern Arizona. There is no thought behind these ratings, they just reflect comparative scores. Davis’ low ranking stems from their failure to blow out some winless teams and the narrow margin of their win over Idaho,

The two polls on the NCAA site, the coaches poll and the FCS Stat-perform poll.

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/football/fcs/afca-fcs-coaches-poll

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/football/fcs/stats-perform-fcs-top-25

You can see the result in the polls, where Davis just moved up a few spots. Computer rankings are going to look at the point differential, and that Davis was the home team, and conclude Davis wasn’t the better team, so leave them behind Idaho. The human opinion polls will be more likely to put Davis ahead of Idaho but not by much
Defensive prowess isn’t what comes to mind when a team gives up 150 to 175 yards and much of a lead in the fourth quarter, which Davis has done in every FCS game except Utah Tech, who they held to only 100. That would be 400 to 700 yards on a per game basis. They are a better defensive team than that, so that partly due to taking the foot off the gas on offense and playing soft coverage. It also reflects that Davis doesn’t believe it can run to close out a game, like most good teams do.

Against Idaho, Davis played only ten reserves, not counting long snappers and kickers. Some of those reserves may have played only on special teams.
No backup offensive linemen and only one reserve defensive linemen played.
The reserves who played quite a bit were Tompkins, Perez, Gale, Dobbins and Amone.

The Stats poll link is a guess,.

Further evidence that the Davis run offense is sub-par, Abilene Christian ran over Utah Tech for 323 yards, 8.7 yards per carry. Davis averaged 2.9 yards per carry. And totalled 133 yards.

Not surprised that Idaho is still top 10. Rating algorithms that use points differentials and where the game was played will leave Idaho higher than Davis as Davis had home field advantage which is worth a couple of points.

In each FCS game this year Davis has had a lead going into the 4th quarter and have seen the opponent generate lots of yardage and cut into but not erase the lead.
The Davis play calling changes in the final quarter to where they are more interested in the time expiring than scoring or giving up points. TAMC, Southern Utah, Utah Tech, and Idaho all dramatically out-gained and outscored Davis in the final quarter. But Davis would have played differently if the score was different.

Twice.
2018 and 2021,

It is odd that in the first years of Davis’ transition to FCS they beat ranked FCS teams all the time,
Yet they never accomplished that in the Maier years,
In recent years they’ve beat ranked Idaho teams 3 times, and a ranked Sac State team, just from memory.
Beating a ranked FCS team is different situation from beating a 1-11 San Jose State team, because it means something to both teams, whereas the FBS vs FCS games have the feeling of exhibitions, and Davis has snuck up on some FBS teams because they don’t have their act together first game of the season.

I believe that was the first win by Plough as a Davis offensive coordinator or head coach over a ranked opponent.

. Several trick plays this year they haven’t lined up legally for.

The Davis defense has to play better than it has against the FCS teams, but they have a mitigating factor in that they were without key players. Now all the starters are expected to be back. My hope is the defense plays as they did against Cal where they held Cal to less than 3 yards a carry and less than 300 yards of offense.

What is the reason 5th year senior Markeece Alexander, #6, went from being a starter at cornerback who had a “breakout year” in 2023, to only playing a bit in the Cal game, if at all? Injury? Coaches decision?

A Monster of the Midway has to play in Chicago.

Idaho’s game notes are up.
https://govandals.com/documents/2024/9/26/Week_5_-_UCDavis.pdf

Wagner is listed in the depth chart, Layne not listed.
Interesting that they have a 260lb wide receiver.
Not a big team, particularly at linebacker.

If Rex plays, this will be the first game since the Cal game that Davis has all its first team defensive players available. Plus they have Antzoulatos who wasn’t available for the Cal game. Idaho reviews of the Davis defense foxus in the defensive line and the corners, but safeties and linebackers are arguably the best units on the team, but have been the areas missing starters. Most of the other injuries have been to reserve defensive linemen, hopefully we get some of them back. We didn’t get to see our defensive line freshmen last week, although the box score says 6’5” LB Kyle Hill got in the game.

Ask Idaho