Re: the 2-point. It's simple math. And I honestly don't think there's a difference between losing 30-14 and 30-15. And once he passed on the 2-point to make it 30-15, you're correct that there isn't really a point in going for it to make it 30-23 vs 30-22.

Let's say for simplicity sake that we have a 50% chance of completing a 2-point and a 100% chance of making an extra point. Your scenarios where you tie the game are:

2P Make + XP Make + XP Make = 0.5 * 1.0 * 1.0 = 50% chance of tying.
2P Miss + 2P Make + 2P Make = 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 = 12.5% chance of tying
So by going for it on the first one, you have roughly a 62.5% chance of tying the game if you manage to get 3 TDs.

XP Make + XP Make + 2P Make = 1.0 * 1.0 * 0.5 = 50% chance of tying.

Maybe it doesn't matter. Maybe they go for it and miss, then miss one of the following 2 and lose anyway. But it's all about what increases your chances of winning the most.

Additionally, if we're talking about what increases the chances of winning the game, rather than just tying it, by kicking the XP and just trying for 2 at the end, if they get it, they only go to OT. If you get the 2-point to make it 30-16, get a TD + XP to make it 30-23 and get a TD to make it 30-29, Plough would have then have had the option to say hey, let's go for the win right here. And the stats will tell you (multiple NFL teams have done this and North Dakota actually just did it today) that when you're down 14 late in the 4th quarter, you actually increase your chances of winning the game if on the first TD, you go for 2 to try to make it a 6 point game. The thought being that if you get the 2-point and get another TD, you kick the XP and win the game outright. If you don't get the 2-point, you can still get the next one and go to OT.

EDIT: And to be clear, that's not an extra 12.5% chance of tying the game. That's an extra 12.5% chance of tying the game IF we score 3 TDs. So Plough not going for it on the 1st TD (to make it 30-15) didn't drop our overall chances of tying the game by 12.5%. The actual number is much lower than that since you have to account for all of the other scenarios (like only scoring 1 TD or only scoring 2 TDs).

Yep, he couldn't have hit that any better than he did.

Supposed to rain on Friday and Saturday so a crappy field (unless Sac has turf) and bad weather could help keep things closer.

Plough messed up by not going for 2 when we made it 30-14. We had to at least get 1 2-point and by waiting until the end, it’s a 50-50 shot. If you go for it early and get it, you can just kick the XP the next two. If you don’t get it, you’re down 16 and you need 2 2-pt conversions. So going for it early increases your chances of tying the game if you do happen to score 3 TDs.

I bet we either stay at 4 or drop to 5 after that.

30-15 and 30-22 are both respectable scorelines. Much better than 30-8. If we get a TD here we’ll probably only drop to 5.

I enjoyed earlier they were trying to get a Go Ags chant going and they stared blaring music. Solid work!

Yeah, would have preferred two quick passes. Throw to Alan if you want to get him the ball.

I bet to 5 or 6. Lowest should be 7 since we should be ahead of Idaho.

Definitely not, though part of that could be forced errors by MSU just being better. If you have less time to throw and less space to run, you’re going to make more mistakes.

I think this one is over. We knows MSU was a level up and while I don’t think they’re 22 points better in 35 minutes of play, they’re definitely better.

They’re killing us with the out routes. Seemingly always open.

They’re getting pressure on the QB seemingly wherever they want to.

Would have been a nice play but that 3rd down throw was catchable.

Could really use points here since MSU gets the ball to start the second half.

Another turnover. Can’t have those.

Danger time.

Up 1 after the 1st. I’ll take it. Defense playing well outside of one play.

That pick hurts.

South Dakota up 14 with a couple minutes left.

Port St up 3-0 at Montana midway through the second quarter. Classic let down look ahead game for the Grizz today.