2025 FCS Playoff Prognostication
Both the Montanas are now locks and will probably play for the #2 seed when they match up in week 13 (and the loser is probably still the #3 seed). UC Davis is trending towards in but they have two tough ones left starting Montana St this weekend - they can lose that one and still be fine but if they do lose that week 13 matchup with Sac St is going to leave the loser in a tough spot. Both Sac St and NAU need to win out I think and NAU has a pretty good shot at doing that although the bubble did tighten a bit today so even at 8-4 NAU might be nervous. It's looking like 2-3 seeds for the Big Sky and 3-4 bids depending on how things play out these last couple weeks.
NAU needs us to beat Sac to have a chance. If Sac and NAU win out, that likely means we lose out. Sac probably gets picked before us and we should get picked before NAU.
UCD: losses to FBS, likely top-5 Montana St, likely ranked Sac (if they win out), 4-6 Idaho St
Sac: losses to FBS, likely top-5 Montana, top-15ish South Dakota St and 3-7 Cal Poly
NAU: losses to FBS, likely top-5 Montana St, ranked UC Davis, 4-6 Idaho.
The only ranked wins would be the H2H wins, if all three are ranked. If those three end up 8-4, 8-4 and 7-4, there's basically no reason to pick NAU over us and there's basically no reason to pick us over Sac. If the Big Sky gets 3, Sac is in. If the Big Sky gets 4, it's us and Sac. The only way NAU has a chance, is if we beat Sac and they win out.