I think Weber was highly overrated coming into the year and week 1 did nothing to change that opinion. Uni by DD’s this weekend.

Osu gets a bump from today. Decent one. Oregon St -25/26 ish over UCD.

I came away happy with what I saw from the Aggies yesterday but even less impressed with TAMC. That is not a good football team and will struggle for most of the year. UCD did exactly what they should have done based on the competition.

Before even seeing Oregon St play, I make Davis +21 vs next week. Think that's a pretty reasonable number but may shift based on what the Beavs do this weekend. I could see it anywhere from 17 to 24 pending that outcome and how they look. I SLIGHTY upgraded Davis after yesterday. Big downgrade to TAMC.

Thanks to those who recapped the transfers and new faces who saw time, much appreciated. Good stuff!

First posted line for tonight is from Draft Kings at -20.5.

I have it around 24. It may tick up, may stay around here but should close in the -21 to -24 range is my guess.

Been a minute but gearing up for football…..not complete but here’s a few thoughts on commerce as I’m prepping for fcs.

Commerce:
Lost a monster WR to Arkansas. Yes that SEC Arky. Kid was a beast.
They’ve got about 5/6 starter back on offense pending how you count starters. Qb (Rodriguez) is solid. Not overwhelming but decent. RB is solid. They were hit harder at WR with losses and a couple on the OL. Offense should be slightly better than last year.

Defense prob take a little step back. Returns roughly 35% of it tackles & 50 ish % of their defensive stats in total. LB took a hit. Secondary will be the strength.

Very little transfer help.

Their win against SELA last year stands out as impressive. (We don’t play transitive properties but as a comparison point SELA beat Idaho in fcs playoffs)
Other than that performance nothing impressive jumps out. IW beat them 35-7 and mostly had their way with them.

New coach. New schemes

End of last year Ags would have likely been about a 20
pt fav in Commerce (23 ish pts adjusting for home field.) I have Commerce at almost the exact power rating as last year (up offense, down defense) and the Ags close to 3 points better. Improving on defense and slightly on offense. If building off last year that would make them 23 pts favs. Doesn’t mean that’s what it will be at all but just my perspective as I do my prep.

Honestly, a sign of the times is my guess. There certainly could be something internal going on that we dont know about but Entz has never has any issues in the program that we know about so who knows. These are talented kids who will start for a team that will 100% make the playoffs and compete for a title. So it may just be more about these kids caring more about their brand and wanting FBs shots... or maybe something is amiss (less likely imo). This is now the times we live in - need to recruit well (both new kids and keeping your kids - makes college coaches jobs even harder).

Props to incarnate word - the had some key graduations then Kinne dragged half his OL and a few other key contributors to Texas St. UIW has gobbled up the FBS transfer in the last couple weeks to restock a bit. Calzada is interesting at QB. I'm not as high on him as others but he's shown talent (See Bama game in 21). These days you gotta be able to use the portal effectively b/c you might get depleted.

Jackson St another good example.

NDSU getting destroyed by the portal. When you include graduations they will need a whole new defense next year. Top RB, Corner and safety (who all could return next year) entered this week.

The Bison were just more flawed than they have been in past year specifically at one position, QB. Cam Miller just isnt very good despite loads of talent all around him. SDSU beat them up front which doesn't happen often but in the past when they went up a team that was close physically (and could slow the run) they could win it with their QB - they don't have that luxury with Miller.

Really happy to see Coach Stig get one. Hes the only person remaining from the time I covered the Great West. A great coach and person. Happy for the Jacks. SDSU just on another level last 4-5 weeks.
What they did to Montana St was impressive/shocking. As I said a couple weeks back, that game was for the title.

Head scratching by Barron. He’s assured to be backing up Austin Reed next year who crushed it
This year after coming in from West Florida. He’s clearly hoping for a path like Zappe and Reed who both transferred from lower levels and destroyed it for the Toppers. He’s not the talent that either of those other kids are however.

Have said it a few times but Cam Miller is not a good QB. Issue is like 1-2 teams have the personnel to put him in a position where he has to use his arm to win. Bison are so strong everywhere else. IW did that for about 20 mins and he was awful. Then the legs got cooking and the Bison front leaned on IW. Cards made too many mistakes and 100% got jobbed on that fumble call. Clearly a fumble and #20 had it, #49 100000000% did not have it. Thats very clear.

Mentioned this last week but the title game is today in Brookings. Winner of that game wins it all imo.

IW should be kicking themselves. They had a chance to literally put the bison away in the 2nd. Should have had mid 20’s. You see what happens when Cam Miller has to throw? He’s awful. But they kept it close enough and then The run game started to cook including Miller where he’s much better.

We’ll see what IW is made off. Huge possession coming out of the half but this could get ugly 2h. Scott needs to steady the ship on offense.

I’m not a big blame the refs guy but whistles/flag def favoring bison. The 2nd down where the WR got blasted before the ball was there is just awful. Throw the flag. Scott slammed to the ground. No flag there but quick to call the targeting Against Miller (it was the right call).

Carson Camp (USD) commits to Sac St. good get for the hornets. He lost his job late in the year but was really impressed with him as a QB the times I watched. He was only a Sophomore last year.

The backup QB at Weber also transferring. They have 3 other QB’s on roster and a couple 3 stars coming in but gonna be really inexperienced at what has traditionally been their relative position of weakness.

oh that’s another big one, good catch. Had not seen it yet.

Here’s the starting QB’s I had made a list of:

Muskett, Monmouth (committed Virginia)
RJ Martinez, NAU
Z. Clement, NW st
McCray, Sacred Heart
Seth Morgan, VMI
Jimmy Weirick, Wofford
Tyler Riddell, ETSU
Carlos Davis, Wcu
D. Crenshaw, YSU
Kohen Granier, Nicholls st
Charlie Dean, Harvard
Piece Holley, G town
Beau Allen, Tarleton St

Sac's 3rd leading WR into the portal now, snowball is starting. I'll bet they'll be at 10 by next week.

Agreed. Great FBS staffs also now need to be able to recruit their own players. Wonder if he can get any of the kids back that have already gone portaling.

Funny that Texas St is the first to offer Skattebo.

Oops threw it in the wrong thread. This wont be the last for the Hornets.
Re Stanford: is size an issue at p5? Maybe, maybe not. Could he get in based on their transfer history? Taylor looks like hes going to push more into the portal which is smart given the gaping holes on the farm and the fact they have 16 in the portal already.

From 247....
New Stanford football coach Troy Taylor plans to recruit the transfer portal, which is something that is unfamiliar territory for the Cardinal program. During the past five seasons in Palo Alto, Stanford had only one player on the roster via the transfer portal. That one player was Patrick Fields. He transferred from Oklahoma as a graduate transfer and got accepted into the university before joining the football team. Taylor says recruiting from the transfer portal will be a higher priority at the school.

“We talked about that,” Taylor told 247Sports about recruiting via the transfer portal. “(Stanford) is totally open to that as long as the student-athletes are good fits… It’s about fit and finding the right student-athletes who can be successful and our drawn here. If they’re in the transfer portal, reach out to them and see if it’s a possibility.”

Sac's best RB Skattebo has entered the portal. So it begins. Hornets about to see a major drop off as a result of TT leaving.

Sluka has been a machine running the ball at QB. Tommy Mellott has to like what he sees. Sean Chambers too.

Great hobby Cross to battle today. Impressive showing.

NDSU game played out exactly as expected. Samford did an unreal job against the run 1st half. Took a minute for the adjustments to kick in but they did and not even as avg QB like Cam Miller could screw it up. Miller is just not a good QB.

Bit shocked by MSU dominance. Wow. SDSU MSU IS the title game next weekend. Mark it. Can’t wait.

Sac the better team. These games happen. IW has an elite offense. And yea sac got 2 onsides. BUT there is no world where you lose turnover battle 4-0 and ever win games. And they lost Dunny half the game. Also a scoop and score. The fact they even had a chance. Outgained em by 130. For a second, almost feel bad for Sac as Taylor leaving for Stanford and this will be their downfall. But they had their chance. Night night Hornets. You done. Go Ags.