I would think it depends on who wins the BWC tour. Today, the NET rankings show UCSD at something like 43 along with some heavyweights, snd Irvine at 66 with borderline teams like USF. The strength of the BWC won’t do much for their rankings the rest of the season even if they both run the table. So, if someone other than UCSD wins the conference tournament, I think you’ll see 2 with the
tritons getting a pretty good seed. UCSD wins it? Gets a little dicey for Irvine. I’m not familiar enough with UCI’s body of work, but a quick glance doesn’t show any high level wins that would push them. Seems like, from a quick google, mid 60 NET is the cutoff, and those last schools in tend to be from power conferences .

With today's loss a four seed for the Aggies is likely out of reach even with Riverside’s loss to Cal Poly. UC Santa Barbara's win makes the fifth seed less likely although the Gauchos could finish 10-10 and would lose the tiebreaker with the Ags. For that to have a slight chance, UC Davis has to beat either Hawai`i on the road or UCI or UCSD. Whether or not they beat Hawai`i, I don't see us falling below a 6 seed unless Bakersfield edges us out. The way CSUN is playing right now, one has to think they could edge out the Anteaters for the second seed. Looks like UCR and UCSB will fight it out for the last top 4 spot.

My crystal ball says that no one is going to beat UC San Diego in the Big West. Not only are they alone in first but they are peaking, it seems if you look at the scores of their last 6 games. CSUN is going to give them a battle on Thursday but after that, the only team they play with a current winning record is the Ags. I predict that they are going to reel off 6 straight wins, wind up in the AP top 25 and get the only spot in the NCAAs, since Irvine has faded.

Big West site shows only 5 teams in. I guess it’s still possible there could be 4 teams at 9 wins? I would think tiebreakers get goofy at that point.

They also signed two solid recruits, including a dynamic 5'10" PG who plays above the rim.

Just following up on my post, Bako and Poly still play each other, so someone will be eliminated with a loss in that game.

I’m obsessing a bit on this because I’m going to the tournament for the first time and don’t want to be without a team!

I’ll see you there. First time me and the kids are going since it moved to Nevada

I like the Henderson venue... but actual question, why is the championship in Las Vegas? Like actually? I get that SoCal is closer to Vegas than us in Davis but it still seems ridiculously out of the way.

my guess is money!

I’ve also read that some schools didn’t like the closeness of the Honda center to some schools (not a neutral site) and that the Honda Center was too big for thd Big West - lots of empty space (18k arena vs about 6k)

As things now appear, it is probable that the 5 through 8 seeds will go to UCSB, UCD, Bakersfield and Hawai`i with Cal Poly having a decent chance of bumping Hawai`i. Bakersfield has a realistic chance of finishing 9-11, so at first glance the Ags would need to win one game to stay out of the 7th seed where they would then face the Roadrunners in the first round. But if the Aggies do win dup at 7, who will be 6? CSU Bakersfield. Thus the most likely scenario has us playing Bakersfield again, a team that has beaten the Ags twice this year. It looks like the only way to avoid that is to pass UCSB. The Gauchos are likely to finish 11-9 as they face CSUN and UCI. A win over Hawai`i tomorrow would mean we would have to beat either UCSD or UCI next week to even tie with UCSB. Seems like a long shot.

if we tie UCSB, we’d get the head to head tiebreaker. We are almost certainly 6 or 7, shouldn’t matter which.

i know it's a long shot but I think we could surprise Irvine and/or San Diego. We had CSUN on the ropes but couldn't hold on and the Matadors were in a position to upset SD until the final seconds. So I think we have a chance to pull an up an upset or two especially since we are playing our final two games at home and the final game, against SD, is on nation TV on senior night. Never underestimate a hungry team like the Ags!

Unfortunately our collapse last home stand has made this last home stand irrelevant (except to possibly get a non losing record). There are 2 games of note this week : CSUN vs UCR, and Hawaii at CSUB.

First game could determine 3rd seed although I’m not positive about tie breakers. Poly has two easy games so should finish 8-12. I think Hawaii beats CSUB at Bakersfield to sneak in at 8-12, with CSUB on the outside at 7-13. UCSB should finish 11-9. I fear we’ll finish 9-11 with a 6 seed to take on whoever has the tiebreaker between Hawaii/Poly.

From the Big West boards. Note that Hawaii plays at Bakersfield and CSUN.

AP now gives UC San Diego 17 votes and the Coach's poll, 24. Both would give them a rank of 30 if the polls didn't stop at 25. Bracketology on ESPN gives them an 11 seed. I'm going to say that the Big West gets two bids if anyone knocks off the Tritons in the BW Tournament.

Cynic's take: UCSD will 100% get screwed over in that situation so that they can give the 12th place SEC team a spot in lieu of two BW teams.

I counted 14 SEC teams in the bracketology I saw. At this rate they're going to have to call it the SEC invitational.

Ha, I went with a really big number, and it wasn't even big enough. How many freakin' teams are in the SEC?!

There are "only" 16 and teams like Texas and Oklahoma who are in 13th and 14th places are supposedly NCAA worthy. 8 SEC teams are in the top 25.

I can't remember where the Big West Tournament games were broadcast in the past. I want to say the finals were on ESPNU, but were earlier rounds only on ESPN+ and does anyone know if it will be the same this year?

I found this on Wikipedia - the source of all knowledge. Looks like late semi and final on ESPN2. Not sure what the delay would be on the early semi (6:00 tip off)

Gauchodan previews all of tonight's BWC games and how the possible outcomes could affect the seeding for the BWC Tournament:

https://bigwestbanter.substack.com/p/penultimate-thursday?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=3137908&post_id=157481056&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=31ratq&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email

I believe if Poly beats Long Beach they finish 7th. And finish the season on a 8-4 run.

Go Beach!

Right. I don't know why I didn't realize this, but the Honolulu paper noted this morning that if Hawai`i loses to CSUN on Saturday and Cal Poly beats the Beach (both likely) then we wold wind up playing Cal Poly. That could be a bigger problem for the Ags than Hawai`i.

As of March 11, the NCAA Net rankings have UCSD at 35, UCI at 62 and CSUN at 104, then the rest of the conference well below. While it is possible for any team to get hot and/or lucky and win the Big West Tournament, it is most likely to be one of the top three. With UCSD having such a high rating, the Big West should have two teams in the NCAAs if either CSUN or Irvine wins the tournament. That woud be the first time since 2005. Anyone recall when a Big West team won the national title? Or that it was once called the Pacific Coast Athletic Association?

the 1990 UNLV team.

Jdur got it. Also, I note that the only Aggie to receive Big West honors was TY: first team all conference.No one else even got an honorable mention.

they tied New Mexico State for conference regular season championship. NMSU went to NCAA that year also.

I was shocked that Niko didn’t get a mention. Unsurprisingly and well deserved, UCSD dominated that entire list.

I would not be at all surprised if Cal Poly makes a deep run in the tournament, possibly getting to the semifinals. Riverside is favored by 4.5.