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BlueGoldAg
1.5kFrom the anygivenday.com FCS football forum:
Week 12 Playoff Prognostication
November 9, 2025, 08:35 AM
Just 2 weeks until Selection Sunday so here's the so the next installment of my playoff prognostication. To get a handle on it I broke it down by conference listing the teams in order from where I think (using Massey as a guide) each team sits in terms of easiest path to the to toughest path to the playoffs within their conference.
You can see all of Massey's updated numbers at https://masseyratings.com/cf/fcs/ratings and clicking on each team there gives the details I'm using below. The numbers in brackets behind each team is Massey's expected remaining wins and losses and the percentage in parenthesis behind each remaining game is Massey's percentage that each team wins that respective game. Using Massey percentages to project the remaining games I put together what I think would be the field at the bottom of this post if it all played out like it's supposed to (which we all know it won't).
Big Sky
Both the Montanas are now locks and will probably play for the #2 seed when they match up in week 13 (and the loser is probably still the #3 seed). UC Davis is trending towards in but they have two tough ones left starting @Montana St this weekend - they can lose that one and still be fine but if they do lose that week 13 matchup with Sac St is going to leave the loser in a tough spot. Both Sac St and NAU need to win out I think and NAU has a pretty good shot at doing that although the bubble did tighten a bit today so even at 8-4 NAU might be nervous. It's looking like 2-3 seeds for the Big Sky and 3-4 bids depending on how things play out these last couple weeks.
Locks
Montana 10-0 (6-0) [1.21/0.79] - @PSU (91%), Montana St (30%)
Montana St 8-2 (6-0) [1.55/0.45] - UC Davis (85%), @Montana (70%)
Trending towards in
UC Davis 7-2 (5-1) [0.80/1.20] - @Montana St (15%), Sac St (65%)
Work left to do
Northern Arizona 6-4 (3-3) [1.50/0.50] - Cal Poly (82%), @Weber St (68%)
Sac St 6-4 (4-2) [0.90/1.10] - Idaho (55%), @UC Davis (35%)
All conferences here: https://www.anygivensaturday.com/forum/general-fcs/fcs-discussion/4708807-week-12-playoff-prognostication -
Riveraggie
356Davis already has locked in a position ahead of NAU in my opinion. Davis beat them head to head and even if NAU wins next 2 and Davis loses both, they end up with the same number if losses, the same number of FCS losses, and I think they would choose Davis based on head to head result,
Davis would win out over Sac if Davis wins one of their remaining games or if Idaho beats Sac. If Sac has five losses they are out of consideration. May be an uncomfortable feeling if they lose to Sac, but just a few years ago Davis was passed over after beating Sac. -
Riveraggie
356That is said to be from Massey, so its based on a web of comparative scores. That is the same percentage that Sagarin gives in line with their 17 point differential prediction..
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BaseballAtDobbins
157Montana State is my pick to win the FCS championship, the game is away, and a cold weather vs a warmer weather team. From NWs Great Falls is the weather forecast. Could still change but its cold by CA standards but relatively warm for Bozeman this time of year.
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agalum
445The weather at the moment is manageable. The highs have been in the low 60s. I’m back from being NE of bozeman. We were wearing T shirts in the afternoon and a light coat at dawn. But one thing is certain in that area. Weather forecasts aren’t very accurate. Maybe its related to being in the shadows of the rockies. We had snow one morning when it was forecast to be clear. -
cmt
206Montana State is my pick to win the FCS championship — BaseballAtDobbins
Only crazy people pick against North Dakota St. LOL -
cmt
206Both the Montanas are now locks and will probably play for the #2 seed when they match up in week 13 (and the loser is probably still the #3 seed). UC Davis is trending towards in but they have two tough ones left starting Montana St this weekend - they can lose that one and still be fine but if they do lose that week 13 matchup with Sac St is going to leave the loser in a tough spot. Both Sac St and NAU need to win out I think and NAU has a pretty good shot at doing that although the bubble did tighten a bit today so even at 8-4 NAU might be nervous. It's looking like 2-3 seeds for the Big Sky and 3-4 bids depending on how things play out these last couple weeks.
NAU needs us to beat Sac to have a chance. If Sac and NAU win out, that likely means we lose out. Sac probably gets picked before us and we should get picked before NAU.
UCD: losses to FBS, likely top-5 Montana St, likely ranked Sac (if they win out), 4-6 Idaho St
Sac: losses to FBS, likely top-5 Montana, top-15ish South Dakota St and 3-7 Cal Poly
NAU: losses to FBS, likely top-5 Montana St, ranked UC Davis, 4-6 Idaho.
The only ranked wins would be the H2H wins, if all three are ranked. If those three end up 8-4, 8-4 and 7-4, there's basically no reason to pick NAU over us and there's basically no reason to pick us over Sac. If the Big Sky gets 3, Sac is in. If the Big Sky gets 4, it's us and Sac. The only way NAU has a chance, is if we beat Sac and they win out. -
BlueGoldAg
1.5kSam Herder Hero Sports Top 25 after week 11:
https://herosports.com/fcs-top-25-sam-herder-ballot-11-10-2025-bzbz/ -
BaseballAtDobbins
157Who are the Ags rooting for this week? Yes, I know they would say they are focused on Montana State. You all know what I mean.
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cmt
206If we're worried about Sac, which we should be, we should want Idaho to knock them off this week. I mean, we can take care of business ourselves if we just beat them in two weeks, but Idaho beating Sac would help us. Honestly not sure any other results matter besides ours as far as seeding goes.
If we go 2-0, we get a top-8 seed.
If we go 1-1, lose a close-ish game against MSU but handle Sac, we could be in the discussion for a top-8 seed (this would be the one scenario where other results matter).
If we go 1-1, get handled by MSU and beat Sac, we get a 9-16 seed and a home game in the first round.
If we go 0-2, we sweat but I think we still get in unless Sac smacks us.
I mean, there's seeding within each group, but I'm not sure it matters much if you're the 5 seed vs. the 7 seed or the 12 seed vs. the 15 seed. -
cmt
206I mean I guess. But then you're likely going to Bozeman or Missoula and playing outdoors in late December which won't exactly be an enjoyable experience either.
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SochorField
454No way around beating the FCS top-tier if you want to get to the Championship, surely they'll be spread across the bracket. Favorable match-ups are more fun though!
By top-tier I mean NDSU, UM, MSU, SDSU (especially if in Brookings in late-november). I still consider them top-tier, though Tarleton is probably the "lock" over them this year. I'd rather have to go through Tarleton, especially if its down in Texas. -
Aggienation818
52I feel this is going to be a year of parity in the playoffs. Not saying they aren’t the real deal but anyone ranked 3-10 looks to be a toss up. Seems Like the top teams are in a lot of 1 score games down the stretch too. We could see some upsets in round 2 that make way for an interesting playoff run. -
SochorField
454I'd love to see the Ags shock everyone, win-out and get a bye/home games. Never know!
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