• CA Forever
    868
    After a win on the road against the Vandals the Aggies have to hit the road again to Bozeman to take on the Bobcats of Montana State who will be the biggest test on the schedule (not counting Washington) to date. The Bobcats come into this match up with an 8-2 record and ranked as a top 3 team in the country. Their record to date has been...

    @ Oregon - L - 13-59
    vs South Dakota State - L - 24-30
    vs San Diego - W - 41-7
    vs Mercyhurst - W - 17-0
    vs Eastern Washington - W - 57-3
    @ Northern Arizona - W - 34-10
    vs Idaho State - W - 48-14
    @ Cal Poly - W - 34-17
    @ Northern Colorado - W - 55-7
    vs Weber State - W - 66-14

    I think at just a superficial level it is really impressive that the most points they have allowed in a conference game to date is 17 and they are averaging almost 50 points scored per game. They will suffocate you both offensively and defensively so it's not surprising that they are one of the best teams in the country and probably one of the only squads that has a chance against a NDSU in a title run if we're being totally honest with ourselves.

    The Bobcat offense is led by junior QB Justin Lamson who has completed 166/230 passing attempts (72.17%) for 2026 passing yards with 18 passing TDs to only 2 INTs. Not only is he a highly efficient passer, he can also do damage with his legs. Lamson has 107 rushing attempts on the season for a net of 412 yards with 8 rushing TDs. He's the kind of QB you would like to keep a spy on, unfortunately the rest of their offense is talented enough we probably won't have that luxury.

    Outside of Lamson running the ball himself, the Bobcats feature two very strong running backs who have been carving up defenses. Sophomore RB Adam Jones has 107 carries on the season for a net of 593 yards (5.5 average) with 9 TDs while senior RB Julius Davis has 96 carries for a net of 709 yards (7.4 average) with 6 TDs. The fact that they can rotate 2 very talented RBs along with a QB who can do some ground and pound will wear down most defensive lines and why the average well over 200 yards rushing per game.

    While they have several competent receivers, it's not a secret that their main receiving threat is junior WR Taco Dowler who has 51 receptions for 645 yards with 5 TDs on the season. Their next closest receiver purely in terms of production has been freshman WR Dane Steel with 26 receptions for 301 yards with 1 TD. I do think that it is worth noting that while he does not have a ton of yards on the season, freshman TE Rocky Lencioni has matched Dowler with 5 TDs.

    The thing about the Montana State defense is that they don't necessarily have 1-2 star players blowing things up, but a whole roster of quality players who just do their jobs really well. They don't have one singular guy with a ton of sacks or interceptions or forced fumbles, but just about every guy is contributing in meaningful ways. Junior DB Caden Dowler is leading the team in tackles with a total of 60 while also contributing 4.5 TFLs, 1 sack, 1 INT, and 1 forced fumble. Senior DE Kenneth Eiden IV and junior DE Zac Crews are tied for most sacks on the team with 2.5 apiece. While none of the aforementioned numbers sound crazy on an individual level, the Bobcats on the season are allowing less than 300 yards per game this season and that is including their game against Oregon.

    On special teams their punter is averaging almost 43 yards per punt while their kicker has made 12 of 14 attempts so far.

    Let's be honest, the Bobcats have torn through Big Sky competition like wet tissue paper and with our injury situation compiling on both sides of the ball I don't think that we will fare much better especially on the road in a hostile Bozeman, Montana with the weather report currently showing a high temperature in the upper 40s. Of course I would like this to be a win, but I don't think that they will be looking past us despite the upcoming Brawl of the Wild against Montana. I guess that my definition of success in this game would be making it look respectable.

    GO AGS!
  • agalum
    446
    I’m just back from hunting in Montana. 200 miles NE of Bozeman, go into any tavern or restaurant, and this is what you see. Can you imagine going into a restaurant in Bakersfield or Redding and seeing a UC Davis poster?
    bks4fwzp28c8ofyi.jpeg
  • AggieFinn
    733
    Weber @ Montana State:


    Montana State @ Northern Colorado:


    Montana State @ Cal Poly:


    Idaho State @ Montana State:


    Montana State @ Northern Arizona:


    South Dakota State @ Montana State:
  • SoCalAggie
    90
    Game is on ESPN 2. Even with a healthy squad we all know that MSU is in that tier 1 where we are likely a tier 1b school.

    I fear our injuries are going to show here big time. If we were to pull off a miracle the way I see that happening is at the line.

    1) are we able to give CP time or will he be running for his life with pressure?

    2) Are we able to get pressure on their QB or will he have all day in the pocket?

    If we lose those battles this could get ugly.
  • MTBAggie
    192
    Any idea if Vargas will be back for this game?
  • cmt
    206
    I have zero expectations for this game. Just hoping for a respectable showing where we don't get blown out. If we go there and lose like 42-28, that's not the end of the world (assuming it's not 42-7 and we get 3 TDs when they've got their 3rd stringers in the game in the 4th quarter).
  • BaseballAtDobbins
    157
    If they lose by less than 3 scores, I think most people will understand. They can't have a UW type loss though.
  • Kadeezy
    18
    Gentleman, posted this on SacBuzz.com - I think we are on our way to a win and you're in Causeway Classic...

    Idaho got their QB back last week and were dangerous enough to put a slight scare into UC Davis. Now they come to Sacramento Saturday night for Senior night in another do or die game for the Hornets. Can we get a home performance that mirrors some of our excellent road performances as of late? Wood (QB), Graves (WR), and Cummings (RB) are a scary trio. Would almost like it to pour rain, but it should be in the 60s and clear around kickoff.

    Out of optimism and pure desire for an all time Causeway I'll say...



    (RV) SAC 48

    (NR) Idaho 38



    FINAL





    Leading us too a win and you're in Causeway Classic...



    Game 12: (RV) Sac State (7-4, 5-2 BSC) @ UC Davis (6-4, 4-3 BSC)
  • Jdur
    191
    wouldn’t it be 3 losses for Davis?
  • DrMike
    981
    and 7 wins
  • Pacifico2
    57
    Fresno State used to do that in the Central Valley but that has gone away. Absolutely simple and brilliant marketing. It only takes effort.
  • cmt
    206
    That's a Sac St education right there!
  • Kadeezy
    18
    Opta Analyst has your record listed wrong on their page: https://theanalyst.com/articles/fcs-top-25-poll-stats-perform-rankings-week-11-2025


    It would be....

    Game 12: (RV) Sac State (7-4, 5-2 BSC) @ UC Davis (7-3, 5-2 BSC)
  • SochorField
    454
    Idaho is better than their record. Just get through that one first...

    Selection committee likely has the 2023 situation in their memory bank. I doubt the Sac game will be a win-and-you're-in situation for Davis, as Davis likely has a spot unless they get beat by 80 in Bozeman. A loss to Sac would likely be a ranked loss if they beat Idaho.

    Plus everyone in a position of power hates Sac right now (fair or not).
  • Pacifico2
    57
    While I recognize the playoff implications and prognostications, along with the difference between "good" and "bad" wins and losses, the players and coaches will not be preparing like message board posters. They're in it to find a way to win. Everyone knows how hard that is, so what is it going to take?

    1. Run the ball and stop the run. UCD's ability to run the football sets up a big portion of their passing game. It takes some pressure of their QB. Look at any football game and 2nd and manageable > 2nd and long. The Ags have to find a way to do 1.5 to 2x what the Cats allow on the ground. They need to keep MSU at or below 200 yards on the ground to have a realistic chance. That's not to say we can't pass for 450 and surrender 250 on the ground and still win, but that is an outlier scenario.

    2. Win on 3rd down. Montana State allows an impressive 30% conversion rate on 3rd down. Going back to what I said in the first point, the Ags need to stay out of the longer 3rd down scenarios. Plough does a nice job on the 3rd and 10+ plays when the protection allows, this will be an interesting aspect of the game.

    3. Cover kicks and punts. The Cats are elite in both the kickoff and punt return phases. Hell, their interception returns average nearly 29 yards per return! The special teams coordinator is fully aware of what they can do, he needs to have a solid plan and it needs to be executed. Starting field position could be the difference if everything else is even.

    4. Protect your possessions. It is OK to punt at times, and that is always better than turning the ball over or allowing sacks. The Aggies have allowed 23 sacks on the season, and not all of those are the fault of the Offensive Line. There needs to be a solid protection plan against the Bobcat defense and the QB needs to grasp the fact that sacks are essentially turnovers. Again, 7-10 yards of field position can be critical in tight games. Starting field position is going to be a hidden stat that impacts this game.

    The Aggies don't need to be perfect. They need to keep the game close going into the 4th quarter and give themselves a chance to win. I read somewhere that they are given a 15% chance of winning. Fine. All that means is that it is going to be tough, which I am sure Plough & Co. already know and don't need some computer or football dorks to tell them.

    Plough is a boxing guy. My recommendation for the theme of the week would be that they have a "puncher's chance". That is, the possibility that a fighter who is outmatched can still win the fight by landing a single, powerful knockout punch at the perfect time. Rocky Marciano had a couple of these in his career. George Foreman, Julio Caesar Chavez, etc. Every Rocky Balboa fight (that's a joke). Plenty of examples where guys were well behind on the card but still standing towards the end of the fight. One punch is all it takes. Just get it to the late rounds close and give yourself a shot.

    Not saying this is going to happen. I'm saying this is how UC Davis wins this football game in Bozeman on Saturday night.
  • Aggienation818
    52
    This is going to be tough but f**k it ags ball! We got about as good as a shot as anyone. Just hope for some early momentum. Keys are stopping their run, getting off the field on 3rd down, and scoring touchdowns in the redzone. We do that, we win I believe.
  • SochorField
    454
    This is the type of game where Special Teams needs a flawless performance.
  • Aggienation818
    52
    Not having to prepare for Touchdown Tommy seems like a weight off of our shoulders, hopefully. He made them pretty unbeatable last year.
  • agalum
    446
    We can’t expect to be competitive in this game and leave points on the field. I’m sure coach is working hard to limit motion penalties in that loud environment as well. I’m sure the cats will be blitzing Caden all night. I’d like to think we can play them tough, but these dudes are real.
  • Pacifico2
    57
    I'd take it a step further and say they have to make a play somewhere to win, like block a punt or crib a return
  • SochorField
    454
    To my eye, teams have found success blitzing Pinnick. In this later part of the season, the pressure has brought some INTs and bad decisions. This was apparent in many instances vs. Idaho. Rushing a young QB is about the smartest move there is.
  • BlueGoldAg
    1.5k
    There's a football watch party at Woodstock's Pizza in Davis at 7:15 pm. Use code GOAGS in their app or mention it to your waiter to get discounts on pizza, beer and gin cocktails.
  • fugawe09
    300
    I think a comment made during the broadcast was that his high completion rate and high sac rate are related because he doesn’t throw the ball away. Perhaps the gift and curse of a mobile quarterback, figuring out when you can and can’t make something out of nothing.
  • movielover
    632
    Mr. Combs has his work cut out this week.
  • NCagalum
    349
    Can you imagine going into a restaurant in Bakersfield or Redding and seeing a UC Davis poster?
    Only game in town (besides Montana). Makes a big difference
  • NCagalum
    349
    from Ploughs remarks about having Fisher tote the ball 25-30 times a game from now on, it appears Cargas is out for the foreseeable future. Hope I wrong.
  • SochorField
    454
    Nobody is ever going to accuse Plough of not being completely honest, that's for sure.
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